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Relationship Between Inflation And Unemployment In Pakistan Essay

INTRODUCTION

Inflation seems to be a chronic problem in many parts of the world today and unemployment, a phenomenon, true for Pakistan, and valid for United States and other western economies. Even the fastest growing Chinese economy is not totally immune to it. Thus this research project

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deals with the analysis of unemployment and inflation in Pakistan. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship that exists between these two macroeconomic variables, which affect every nation as well as an individual.

The Phillips curve shows a historical inverse relation between the rate of unemployment and the rate of inflation in an economy. It is the trade-off between inflation and unemployment (Mankiw, 2002). The lower the unemployment in an economy, the higher the rate of change in wages paid to labor in that economy.

LITERATURE REVIEW

The relationship between unemployment and inflation the two macroeconomic variables is usually summarized by the Phillips curve. Different studies have been conducted related to these variables in order to see whether any relationship between these two macroeconomic variables exists or not. While analyzing the trade-off between inflation and unemployment in Asia, (Dua 1996), takes inflation as the function of expected inflation, unemployment gap/ output gap, exchange rate, import inflation and oil price inflation. In India and Philippines the tradeoff between inflation and unemployment does not exist, whereas, in Japan, Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong it does. (Rafael, MacCulloch, & Oswald 2000), on the other hand, suggest that welfare and life satisfaction level is a function of inflation and unemployment and people are happier when rates of both are low.

However unemployment in comparison with inflation depresses people more than inflation. Thus while controlling country fixed-effects, year effects, and time trends, it is estimated that people will trade 1% increase in unemployment for 1.7% increase in inflation. A strong positive relation between unemployment rate and inflation rate lagged one or two years is also shown, which is inconsistent with both Philips curve and NAIRU. In other words the trade-off between inflation and unemployment rate does not exist,

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except in the same year, and in the long run unemployment is a positive function with inflation (Niskanen 2002). Namibia, using the time series data from 1991-2005, exhibits the presence of stagflation in its economy.

In other words he found increase in both inflation and unemployment at the same time, which contradicts the traditional short-run Philips curve (Ogbokor 2005). (Furuoka 2007) using the data of Malaysia from 1975-2004 shows and existence of co-integrated as well as casual relationship between inflation and unemployment. That is the study provides an empirical evidence to support the Philips curve.

Likewise, Philips curve also exists in Japan, with negative coefficients of linear link between inflation and unemployment. Also there is a generalized linear and lagged relationship between labor force, unemployment and inflation in Japan, which is confirmed by the fact that the driving force behind unemployment and inflation is the change rate of labor force level (Kitov 2007). In this paper, a Philips curve with linear link will be calculated for Pakistan to see if the negative relationship between the variables exists or not.

Problem Statement:
What is the likely relationship between inflation and unemployment in Pakistan? Hypothesis:
If unemployment increases, then inflation decreases.

Data Source:
Secondary data for the purpose of this research has been obtained from the year 2000-2011. The data on unemployment rate (percentage of total labor force) and inflation rate (general not adjusted for food and energy) for Pakistan, has been taken from the Economic Survey of Pakistan.

Objective

The objective of this research is to determine the relationship between inflation and unemployment for the economy of Pakistan. Philips curve is based on the equation where unemployment is the function of inflation.

METHODOLOGY

Here, a regression is run for inflation rate and unemployment rate for Pakistan. The functional form of the model which is as follows: Y = βο + β1X1 + Є

Substituting the above inflation function in the equation
INFt = βο + β1Ut + Єt
Where U is the unemployment rate and INF is inflation rate for a given time “t”. The Equation obtained after running the OLS model is:
INFt = 30.96981 – 3.306067 Ut

Dependent Variable: INF

Method: Least Squares

Date: 08/01/13 Time: 21:49

Sample: 1 12

Included observations: 12

Variable
Coefficient
Std. Error
t-Statistic
Prob.

C
30.96981
6.078158
5.095263
0.0005
U
-3.306067
0.882942
-3.744377
0.0038

R-squared
0.583686
Mean dependent var
8.549167
Adjusted R-squared
0.542055
S.D. dependent var
5.344512
S.E. of regression
3.616718
Akaike info criterion
5.560023
Sum squared resid
130.8065
Schwarz criterion
5.640841
Log likelihood
-31.36014
Hannan-Quinn criter.
5.530101
F-statistic
14.02036
Durbin-Watson stat
2.038825
Prob(F-statistic)
0.003819

While interpreting the regression line, the negative sign with the coefficient of unemployment shows that in Pakistan Inflation and unemployment are inversely related at “t” period. One percent increase in unemployment in one year will bring a decrease in inflation of 3.306067 percent. Unemployment in this simple regression model is statistically significant as the probability of t-stats is less than 0.05 and so we reject H0. The intercepted value 30.96981 of B0 shows the inflation rate when unemployment is zero. The R2 for this model, which lies between 0 and 1, comes out to be 0.583686 which shows that 58.36 percent of the variation in inflation is explained by unemployment.

The adjusted R2 statistics comes out to be 0.542055. The Durbin-Watson d statistics test, which is done for autocorrelation, is 2.038825 for Pakistan, showing that there is no auto or serial correlation. As this is simple regression model multicollinearity is not present. As the probability of F-stat is less than 0.05 we will reject H0 which means that the model is overall statistically significant. The Scatter Plot for Inflation and Unemployment somehow depicts the same relationship as above.

CONCLUSION & RECOMMENDATION

This study is conducted in order to make an analysis of inflation and unemployment in Pakistan from year 2000-2010. It has employed a simple regression analysis technique. The main conclusion derived from this study is that the tradeoff between these two variables, the Philips Curve, is observed in Pakistan. When unemployment is high, the cost of goods will increase during an inflationary period, but firms will be able to hire cheap labor, as labor will be in surplus.

Wages will not rise while unemployment remains high. Workers will have to borrow money or reduce the amount of goods they purchase. If workers cannot get loans, firms will have to lower prices to continue to sell products, thus reducing inflation. This study makes the following recommendation in the light of its analysis. Easy fiscal policy can be used to decrease unemployment at the expense of inflation, as mild inflation is desirable in every economy. However in Pakistan the inflation rate is much higher than the unemployment rate. Thus Pakistan has to focus more on policies which lead to reduction in inflation but the Government should also control unemployment at the same time.

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Since the country's independence in 1947, the economy of Pakistan has emerged as a semi-industrialised one, based heavily on textiles, agriculture and food production, though recent years have seen a surge towards technological diversification. As of 2014, agriculture accounts for more than one-fifth of output and two-fifths of employment. Textiles account for most of Pakistan's export earnings, and inflation has increased rapidly, climbing from 7.7% in 2007 to almost 12% for 2011, before declining to 10% in 2012 and to 2.11 percent in April 2015. Inflation Rate in Pakistan averaged 7.99 percent from 1957 until 2015, reaching an all-time high of 37.81 percent in December 1973 and a record low of -10.32 percent in February 1959. Pakistan suffered its only economic decline in GDP between 1951 and 1952.[1]

The land forming modern-day Pakistan was home to the ancient Indus Valley Civilisation from 2800 BC to 1800 BC; historical evidence suggests that the civilisation relied on and carried trade through the Indus River, and its inhabitants were some of the most resourceful traders. Since independence the economic growth has meant an increase in average income of about 150 percent over 1950–96. But Pakistan, like many other developing countries, has not been able to narrow the gap between itself and rich industrial nations which have grown faster on a per head basis. Per capita GNP growth rate during 1985–95 was only 1.2 percent per annum, substantially lower than India (3.2), Bangladesh (2.1), and Sri Lanka (2.6).[2] Growth was slow during the 1950s averaging 3.1 percent per annum but accelerated to 6.7 percent during the sixties and remained generally close to 6 percent per annum till the early 1990s.

Ancient History[edit]

Indus Valley civilisation, the first known permanent and predominantly urban settlement that flourished between 3500 BC to 1800 BC boasted of an advanced and thriving economic system. Its citizens practised agriculture, domesticated animals, made sharp tools and weapons from copper, bronze and tin and traded with other cities.[3] Evidence of well laid streets, layouts, drainage system and water supply in the valley's major cities, Harappa, Lothal, Mohenjo-daro and Rakhigarhi reveals their knowledge of urban planning.

Though ancient India had a significant urban population, much of India's population resided in villages, whose economy was largely isolated and self-sustaining. Agriculture was the predominant occupation of the populace and satisfied a village's food requirements besides providing raw materials for hand based industries like textile, food processing and crafts. Besides farmers, other classes of people were barbers, carpenters, doctors (Ayurvedic practitioners), goldsmiths, weavers etc.[4]

In the joint family system, members of a family pooled their resources to maintain the family and invest in business ventures. The system ensured younger members were trained and employed in the family business and the older and disabled persons would be supported by the family. The system, by preventing the agricultural land from being split ensured higher yield because of the benefits of scale. Such sanctions curbed the spirit of rivality in junior members and made a peculiar sense of obedience.[5]

During the Maurya Empire (c. 321–185 BC), there were a number of important changes and developments to the Indian economy. It was the first time most of India was unified under one ruler. With an empire in place, the trade routes throughout India became more secure thereby reducing the risk associated with the transportation of goods. The empire spent considerable resources building roads and maintaining them throughout India. The improved infrastructure combined with increased security, greater uniformity in measurements, and increasing usage of coins as currency enhanced trade.[6]

Under the Mughal Empire[edit]

During the Mughal period (1526–1858) in the 16th century, the gross domestic product of India was estimated at about 25.1% of the world economy.

An estimate of India's pre-colonial economy puts the annual revenue of Emperor Akbar's treasury in 1600 at £17.5 million (in contrast to the entire treasury of Great Britain two hundred years later in 1800, which totaled £16 million). The gross domestic product of Mughal India in 1600 was estimated at about 24.3% the world economy, the second largest in the world.[7]

By the late 17th century, the Mughal Empire was as its peak and had expanded to include almost 90 per cent of South Asia, and enforced a uniform customs and tax-administration system. In 1700 the exchequer of the Emperor Aurangzeb reported an annual revenue of more than £100 million. In the 18th century, Mughals were replaced by the Marathas as the dominant power in much of Indian, while the other small regional kingdoms who were mostly late Mughal tributaries such as the Nawabs in the north and the Nizams in the south, declared an autonomy. However, the efficient Mughal tax administration system was left largely intact.

By this time, India had fallen from the top rank to become the second-largest economy in the world.[7] A devastating famine broke out in the eastern coast in early 1770s killing 5 per cent of the national population.[8] Economic historians in the 21st century have found that in the 18th century real wages were falling in India, and were "far below European levels."[9]

British India[edit]

Main articles: Economy of India under Company rule and Economy of India under the British Raj

After gaining the right to collect revenue in Bengal in 1765, the East India Company largely ceased importing gold and silver, which it had hitherto used to pay for goods shipped back to Britain.[10] In addition, as under Mughal rule, land revenue collected in the Bengal Presidency helped finance the Company's wars in other part of India.[10] Consequently, in the period 1760–1800, Bengal's money supply was greatly diminished; furthermore, the closing of some local mints and close supervision of the rest, the fixing of exchange rates, and the standardization of coinage, paradoxically, added to the economic downturn.[10] During the period, 1780–1860, India changed from being an exporter of processed goods for which it received payment in bullion, to being an exporter of raw materials and a buyer of manufactured goods.[10] More specifically, in the 1750s, mostly fine cotton and silk was exported from India to markets in Europe, Asia, and Africa; by the second quarter of the 19th century, raw materials, which chiefly consisted of raw cotton, opium, and indigo, accounted for most of India's exports.[11] Also, from the late 18th century British cotton mill industry began to lobby the government to both tax Indian imports and allow them access to markets in India.[11] Starting in the 1830s, British textiles began to appear in—and soon to inundate—the Indian markets, with the value of the textile imports growing from £5.2 million 1850 to £18.4 million in 1896.[12]

The British colonial rule created an institutional environment that stabilized law and order to a large extent. The British foreign policies however stifled the trade with rest of the world. They created a well-developed system of railways, telegraphs and a modern legal system. The infrastructure the British created was mainly geared towards the exploitation of resources in the world and totally stagnant, with industrial development stalled, agriculture unable to feed a rapidly accelerating population. They were subject to frequent famines, had one of the world's lowest life expectancies, suffered from pervasive malnutrition and were largely illiterate.

Independent Pakistan[edit]

Pakistan’s population has grown rapidly from around 30 million in 1947 to over 130 million in 1996. The rate of annual growth has averaged 3 percent since 1960.

Pakistan's average economic growth rate since independence has been higher than the average growth rate of the world economy during the same period. Average annual real GDP growth rates[13] were 6.8% in the 1960s, 4.8% in the 1970s, and 6.5% in the 1980s. Average annual growth fell to 4.6% in the 1990s with significantly lower growth in the second half of that decade. See also[14]

During the 1960s, Pakistan was seen as a model of economic development around the world, and there was much praise for its economic progression. The capital Karachi was seen as an economic role model around the world, and there was much praise for the way its economy was progressing.[who?] Many countries sought to emulate Pakistan's economic planning strategy and one of them, South Korea, copied the city's second "Five-Year Plan"; the World Financial Centre in Seoul is modeled after Karachi.

1950s and 1960s: Initial Decades[edit]

Between 27 October 1958 and 25 March 1969 under Ayub Khan Pakistan economic growth averaged 5.82% growth during his eleven years in office. Manufacturing growth in Pakistan during this time was 8.51%, far outpacing any other time in Pakistani history. It was the time when Pakistan first got an automobile industry, a cement industry and few other heavy manufacturing industries. However tax collection was low averaging less than 10% of GDP.[15] The Export Bonus Vouchers Scheme (1959) and tax incentives stimulated new industrial entrepreneurs and exporters. Bonus vouchers facilitated access to foreign exchange for imports of industrial machinery and raw materials.

Tax concessions were offered for investment in less-developed areas. These measures had important consequences in bringing industry to Punjab and gave rise to a new class of small industrialists.[16] Land reform, consolidation of holdings, and stern measures against hoarding were combined with rural credit programs and work programs, higher procurement prices, augmented allocations for agriculture, and, especially, improved seeds were introduced as part of the green revolution. However, academics have argued that while the HYV technology enabled a sharp acceleration in agricultural growth, it was accompanied by social polarization and increased inter personal and inter regional inequality.[17]

Mahbub ul Haq blamed the concentration of economic power to 22 families which were dominating the financial and economic life of the country controlling 66% of the industrial assets and 87% of the banking.[18] During the same period there were construction of several infrastructure projects (notably Tarbela Dam and Mangla Dam), including canals, dams and power stations, began Pakistan's space programme.

In 1959 the country began the construction of its new capital city.[19] A Greek firm of architects, Konstantinos Apostolos Doxiadis, designed the master plan of the city based on a grid plan which was triangular in shape with its apex towards the Margalla Hills.[20] The capital was not moved directly from Karachi to Islamabad; it was first shifted temporarily to Rawalpindi in the early sixties and then to Islamabad when the essential development work was completed in 1966.[21]

Economy of East Bengal in Pakistan[edit]

Main articles: East Pakistan and Economy of Bangladesh

The partition of British India and the emergence of India and Pakistan in 1947 severely disrupted the economic system. The united government of Pakistan expanded the cultivated area and some irrigation facilities, but the rural population generally became poorer between 1947 and 1971 because improvements did not keep pace with rural population increase.[22] Pakistan's five-year plans opted for a development strategy based on industrialization, but the major share of the development budget went to West Pakistan, that is, contemporary Pakistan.[22] The lack of natural resources meant that East Pakistan was heavily dependent on imports, creating a balance of payments problem.[22] Without a substantial industrialization program or adequate agrarian expansion, the economy of East Pakistan steadily declined.[22] Blame was placed by various observers, but especially those in East Pakistan, on the West Pakistani leaders who not only dominated the government but also most of the fledgling industries in East Pakistan.[22]

1970s: Nationalization and Command Economy[edit]

Main articles: Nationalization in Pakistan and Socialist economics

Tarbela Dam is the largest earth filled dam in the world, was constructed in 1968. 

Prime Minister Secretariat in the new capital city 

Pakistan Steel Mills was constructed in 1973, making it the largest industrial mega-corporation having a production capacity of 5.0 million tonnes of steel 

Economic mismanagement in general, and fiscally imprudent economic policies in particular, caused a large increase in the country's public debt and led to slower growth in the 1990s. Two wars with India - the Second Kashmir War in 1965 and the Bangladesh Liberation War in 1971 - and the resultant separation of Bangladesh from Pakistan also adversely affected economic growth.[23] In particular, the latter war brought the economy close to recession, although economic output rebounded sharply until the nationalisations of the mid-1970s. The economy recovered during the 1980s via a policy of deregulation, as well as an increased inflow of foreign aid and remittances from expatriate workers.

According to Muhammad Abrar Zahoor, nationalization of industries was concerned, it can be divided into two phases. The first phase started soon after the PPP came into power and the motivation behind it was distributional concerns — to bring under state control the financial and physical capital controlled by a tiny corporate elite. However, in 1974, influence and authority of the left wing within the party significantly decreased: they had either been marginalized or purged.5 The second phase began in 1974 and the motives and effects of the secondary phase of nationalizations differed from the initial phase. While the first phase was the result of a well thought out strategy motivated by ideological forces, the subsequent phase was the outcome of ad hoc responses to various situations.6 During 1974-76, the style of economic management Bhutto adopted reduced the role of Planning Commission as well as its capacity to offer advice to the political decision-makers. Corruption grew exponentially and access to state corridors became a primary avenue of accumulating a private fortune. In the way, groups and individuals in command of state institutions used public intervention in the "economy as a means for extending their wealth and power."[24]

Bhutto introduced socialist economics policies while working to prevent any further division of the country. Major heavy mechanical, chemical, and electrical engineering industries were immediately nationalised by Bhutto, and all of the industries came under direct control of government. Industries, such as KESC were under complete government control with no private influence in KESC decision. Bhutto abandoned Ayub Khan's state capitalism policies, and introduced socialist policies in a move to reduce the rich get richer and poor get poorer ratio. Bhutto also established the Port Qasim, Pakistan Steel Mills, the Heavy Mechanical Complex (HMC) and several cement factories.However, the growth rate of economy relative to that of the 1960s when East Pakistan was still part of Pakistan and large generous aid from the United Statee declined, after the global oil crises in 1973, which also had a negative impact on the economy.[25]

Economic growth slowed in the wake of nationalisation. This is corroborated by the fact that whereas during 1960s, Pakistan's economy grew on average at 6.8 per cent per annum, during 1970s, growth rate fell to 4.8 per cent per annum on average. It is also true that most of the nationalised units went into loss, because decisions were not market-based. However, rapid economic growth is not the only macro-economic objective of a government. The government has also distributional objectives so as to reduce economic disparities. During 1960s rapid economic growth was accompanied by concentration of resources in a few hands.[26]

1980s-1999: Era of Privatization and Stagnation[edit]

Main articles: Privatization in Pakistan and Economic liberalisation in Pakistan

Pakistan developed first motorway in South Asia in 1997, today it has expanded to 1,502 km long network 

Soviet–Afghan War, Significantly effected the economy of Pakistan with approximately 1.7 million Afghan refugees moving to Pakistan 

Benazir Bhutto twice led the country during this period and promoted social-capitalist policies 

PeriodsGDP Growth Rate↓
(according to Sartaj Aziz)
Inflation Rate↑
(according to Sartaj Aziz)
1988-894.88%[27]10.39%[27]
1989-904.67%[27]6.04%[27]
1990-915.48%[27]12.66%[27]
1991-927.68%[27]9.62%[27]
1992-933.03%[27]11.66%[27]
1993-944.0%[27]11.80%[27]
1994-954.5%[27]14.5%[27]
1995-961.70%10.79%[28]

According to Sushil Khanna, professor at the Indian Institute of Mass Communication, the Pakistani economy under Muhammad Zia-ul-Haq benefited from a number of special factors, both domestic and external. The completion of the long gestation period Tarbela Dam helped unleash an unprecedented agricultural growth, while fertilizer and cement investments undertaken under Bhutto contributed to the industrial growth. Tremendous boost to economic activity was provided by rising worker remittances, which rose to a peak of US $3 billion in 1982-83. In 1982-83, these remittances were equivalent to 10% of the gross national product of Pakistan. Zia also successfully negotiated with USA for larger external assistance, unprecedented in the history of Pakistan. In addition to direct assistance to Pakistan, the United States and allies funneled about US $5–7 billion to the Afghan Mujahedins through Pakistan, providing further boost to the local economy. Similarly, the narcotic trade which gathered momentum in the 1980s strongly supported the service sector of the economy. Under Zia, the economic policies became market oriented. Buoyant remittances and aid eased the foreign exchange constraints on the economy.[29]

As an aftermath of the 1990 general elections, the right-wing conservatives under the leadership of Nawaz Sharif came to the power for the first time in the history of Pakistan. Nawaz Sharif strike the stagflation with full force after forcefully implementing the Privatization and economic liberalization programmes.[30] The stagflation was temporarily ended in the country. However, Sharif's programmes were widely criticized by Pakistan Peoples Party in state media and the growth did not contain the sustainability.[30] The privatization programme under the economic liberalisation programme came with largely surrounded controversies and reckless by Nawaz Sharif to implement his programme.According to the Pakistan Peoples Party, Nawaz Sharif's government arbitrarily fixing the reference prices of the (privatized) state units and ignoring those suggested by the evaluations; though, Sartaj Aziz strongly dismissed the claims.[31]

After returning to power with heavy margins, Nawaz Sharif made several attempts to end the stagflation in the country. Overall, the conditions had been worsened and a year after being elected, Sharif ordered the nuclear tests in a response to India's nuclear aggression. Despite the Asian financial crises in 1997 and Russian financial crises in 1998, and amid economic sanctions in the wake of nuclear tests, the foreign exchange increased to $1.5 billion, the stock market improved and inflation was contained at 3.5% as opposed to 7% in 1993-96. Sharif's second government restored the GDP growth to 3.49% in 1997, tough inflation remains high at 11.80%. Little progress was made by Sharif in 1998, and his reforms only leveled up the GDP growth to 4.19%, while retaining the inflation and unemployment at 7.8%.[32]

2000s: Economic Liberalization, Growth and Re-stagnation[edit]

JF-17 Thunder became the first indigenous combat aircraft produced by the country. 

The poverty expenditure rate statistically dropped to 34.5%—17.2% in 2008 as part of the privatization programme. 

PTCL was privatized in 2005, which boosted revenue of over $1 billion 

Under Shaukat Aziz's government, the country's national economic growth improved at the rate range by 6.4% to 9.0% a year.[33] All revenue collection targets were met on time for the first time in the history of Pakistan, and allocation for development was increased by about 40%.[34] However, this economical success is attributed largely to debt reduction and securing of the billion dollars worth US aid to Pakistan in return for the support in the US-ledwar on terror.[33] Moreover, despite a series of internal and external distresses, economic situation of Pakistan improved significantly and reserves increased to US$10.7bn on 30 June 2004 as compared to US$1.2bn October 1999. Exchange Rate became stable and predictable; the inflation rate dropped to 3.5% last 3 years as against 11–12% in 1990.

The administration of Yousaf Raza Gillani oversaw the dramatic high rise in suicide, corruption, national security, high unemployment, and without the sustainable economic policies along with compilation of other factors, the country's economy re-entered in the "era of stagflation" (a virtual period that country had seen in 1990s earlier).[35][36][37] The Pakistan economy slowed down dramatically to ~4.09% as compared to 8.96%—9.0% presided under his predecessor, Shaukat Aziz in 2004–08; while the yearly growth rate has come down from a long-term average of 5.0% to ~2.0%, though it did not reached to negative level.[36] Calculation performed by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, it pointed out that the "nation's currency in circulation as a percentage of total deposits is 31%, which is very high as compared to India", where 40.0% of the population fell under the line of poverty, with 16.0% rise in the inflation during his four years of presiding over the country.[38] The new strict and tight monetary policy could not tame the soaring inflation, it did stagnate the economic growth.[37] One economist maintained that stagflation took place when the tight monetary policy did not encourage the strong private sector to play a key part in growth. Analyzing the stagflation problem, the PIDE observed that a major cause of continuous era of stagflation in Pakistan was lack of coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities.[37][38]

Since 2013: Privatization and Liberalization[edit]

Main article: Nawaz_Sharif § Third_term_as_Prime_Minister_.282013_.E2.80.93_Present.29

Pakistan rolled out 4G in 2014, aiming to capitalize on over 140 million mobile phones in the country 

Several mass transit system's have been developed throughout Pakistan. 

Sharif inherited an economy crippled with many challenges including energy shortages, hyperinflation, mild economic growth, high debt and large budget deficit. Shortly after taking power in 2013, Sharif won a $6.6 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund to avoid a balance-of-payments crisis. Lower oil prices, higher remittances and increased consumer spending are pushing growth toward a seven-year high of 4.3 percent in the fiscal year of FY2014-15.[44] Pakistan's GDP growth rate for FY 2012-2013 was down to 3.59% with estimates suggesting that it will only reach 3.65% by the end of 2013 however the government expects to increase it to 5.8% for FY 2014-2015. Business confidence in Pakistan is at a three-year high in May 2014 largely backed by increasing foreign reserves to $10b while it is expected that they will cross $15 billion by mid-2014. Along with that, in May 2014 IMF[45] claimed that Inflation has dropped to 13 per cent compared to 25% in 2008, foreign reserves are in a better position and the current account deficit has come down to 3 per cent of GDP for 2014. Standard & Poor's and Moody's Corporation changed Pakistan's ranking to stable outlook on the long-term rating.[46][47][48]

On 5 May 2015, Standard & Poor's revised projections for Pakistan's average real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2015 to 2017 to 4.6 per cent from 3.8 per cent and also upped its outlook on Pakistan's long-term 'B-' credit rating to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’. S&P attributes the largely positive projections to diversification in income generation, the government's efforts towards fiscal consolidation, improvement in external financing conditions and performance, and stronger capital inflows and remittances.[49]Forbes on 4 March 2016, termed Pakistan's economy is on track to become an emerging market in Asia. Claiming that Pakistan’s growing middle class, which will expand from an estimated 40 million people in 2016 to 100 million people by 2050 is ket to countries economic prospects.[50] On Jun 19, 2016, Reuters claimed that Pakistani stocks are soaring, improved security is fuelling economic growth and the South Asian nation will be upgraded to "emerging market" status by index provider MSCI.[51]

Pakistan's GDP is projected by the World Bank to grow by 4.5%. In its South Asian Growth report, the World Bank said, "In Pakistan, gradual recovery to around 4.5 per cent growth by 2016 is aided by low inflation and fiscal consolidation. Increases in remittances and stable agricultural performance contribute to this outcome. But further acceleration requires tackling pervasive power cuts, a cumbersome business environment, and low access to finance. "[52] In FY2016, the current account deficit has widen marginally due to increase in trade deficit.[53] Nevertheless, exports are expected to increase only slightly after 2 years of stagnation,[54] as manufacturing continues to suffer under energy shortages and low cotton prices saw only a modest increase.[55] In his 2016 book, The Rise and Fall of Nations,Ruchir Sharma termed Pakistan’s economy as on a 'take-off' stage and the future outlook till 2020 has been termed ‘Very Good’. Sharma termed it possible to transform Pakistan from a "low-income to a middle-income country during the next five years."[56]

On Oct 31, 2016, Standard & Poor's, by citing improved policymaking resulting in improved macroeconomic stability, raised Pakistan's rating to B from B-. It also revised upward its forecast of average annual GDP growth to five per cent over 2016-2019 from its earlier estimate of 4.7 per cent.[57] In response to S&P's upgrade, PSX's benchmark-100 index posted its largest gain in history, increasing 1,406.03 points (or 3.52%) over a single day.[58] On November 1, 2016, hundreds of Chinese trucks loaded with goods rolled into the Sost dry port in Gilgit-Baltistan as the first shipment of China–Pakistan Economic Corridor.[59] On 3 November 2016, the Sharif government announced that Renault is expected to start assembling cars in Pakistan by 2018, a source earlier in May 6, 2016 had told Reuters that Pakistan was under consideration for new production investment.[60][61] On November 7, 2016, Bloomberg News claimed that the economy is expected to grow around five percent annually for the next three years and claimed that "Pakistan is on the verge of an investment-led growth cycle."[62] On January 10th, 2017, The Economist forecasted Pakistan's GDP to grow at 5.3% in 2017, making it the fifth fastest growing economy in the world and the fastest growing in the Muslim world.[63][64]

References[edit]

The railway network in 1909 in British India.
1971 documentary film about East Pakistan
  1. ^"Is Pakistan's economy in recession?". The Express Tribune. 1 February 2013. 
  2. ^Learning from the Past: A Fifty-year Perspective on Pakistan’s Development
  3. ^Marshall, John (1996). Mohenjo-Daro and the Indus Civilization: Being an Official Account of Archaeological Excavations at Mohenjo-Daro Carried Out by the Government of India Between the Years 1922 and 1927. p. 481. ISBN 9788120611795. 
  4. ^Chopra, Pran Nath (2003). A Comprehensive History Of Ancient India (3 Vol. Set). Sterling. p. 73. ISBN 9788120725034. 
  5. ^Sarien, R. G. (1973). Managerial styles in India: proceedings of a seminar. p. 19. 
  6. ^Ratan Lal Basu & Rajkumar Sen: Ancient Indian Economic Thought, Relevance for Today, ISBN 81-316-0125-0, Rawat Publications, New Delhi, 2008.
  7. ^ abMadison, Angus (2006). The world economy, Volumes 1–2. OECD Publishing. p. 638. doi:10.1787/456125276116. ISBN 92-64-02261-9. Retrieved 1 November 2011. 
  8. ^Kumar, Dharma and Meghnad Desai, eds. The Cambridge Economic History of India: Volume 2, c.1751-c.1970 (1983).
  9. ^Jan de Vries, "Review," American Historical Review (2012) 117#5 p 1534
  10. ^ abcdRobb 2004, pp. 131–134
  11. ^ abPeers 2006, pp. 48–49
  12. ^Farnie 1979, p. 33
  13. ^2005-06 Economic and Social Indicators of PakistanArchived 4 March 2013 at the Wayback Machine.
  14. ^National Accounts (current prices)Archived 13 November 2010 at the Wayback Machine.
  15. ^"How golden was Ayub Khan's era?". tribune.com.pk. 
  16. ^"Export Bonus Scheme — A Review". jstor.org. 
  17. ^THE GREEN REVOLUTION
  18. ^"Richest families in Pakistan - The 22 Families". paycheck.pk. 
  19. ^Jonathan M. Bloom, ed. (23 March 2009). The Grove Encyclopedia of Islamic Art & Architecture. USA: Oxford University Press. p. 309. ISBN 978-0195309911. Retrieved 2 July 2012. 
  20. ^CDA Islamabad. "History of Islamabad". Archived from the original on 12 May 2016. 
  21. ^Maneesha Tikekar (1 January 2004). Across the Wagah: An Indian's Sojourn in Pakistan. Promilla. pp. 23–62. ISBN 978-8185002347. Retrieved 12 May 2012.

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